A private estimate from your own practice performance — not a public calculator, not a prediction. Only you see this. It updates as you practice, so you can watch your trajectory over time.
Each point is your estimated pass likelihood after that practice session. The line moves as you do.
The single best next step: keep practicing. Every session sharpens the estimate — and, more importantly, sharpens you. When you're consistently scoring in your target band here, confirm with an NBME self-assessment under timed conditions.